Posted by Donovan Neal on Sunday, February 11, 2018
Late Afternoon Forecast Update - A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include most counties in North Texas, with the exception of Milam, Robertson, Leon, Falls, Limestone, Freestone, Anderson, and Henderson counties. This advisory runs through midnight until noon on Sunday.
Current Conditions - Temperatures are falling to the upper 20s in most spots due to a strong cold front that came through the area this morning. It won't get any better this evening or tomorrow.
Thankfully, we have been very dry today, and only very light amounts freezing drizzle has been observed in the DFW metro right now. However, conditions will start to deteriorate during the late overnight hours through past midnight.
Here are the important notes:
- Right now, I do think that the majority of the night will stay dry, but very cold. Patchy freezing rain will be possible in some places overnight, causing very light glazing on bridges and overpasses.
- The system will emerge out of Mexico during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday.
- Freezing rain/sleet and showers will become more likely starting from 5AM to noon on Sunday. The greatest concern is areas to the southwest of DFW, where sleet is most likely.
- This will NOT be a major winter storm event, but any light amounts/accumulations of freezing rain/sleet will be sufficient for hazardous travel across the metro tomorrow. Remember, it doesn't take much to cause bridges and overpasses to be very dangerous to drive on.
- Global models suggest that any precipitation will be very light, and any measurable rainfall will stay below 1/4ths of an inch. But keep in mind that any amount of rain in very cold conditions will certainly cause problems for roadways and especially bridges.
- Very cold air will continue to progress from the north this evening, and temperatures will likely fall to the mid 20s tonight.
- Travel conditions will not improve much Sunday evening, as many will not see above 40 during the day
- We will finally climb above freezing late Monday morning. Any leftover ice at that point will melt.
I don't think it is appropriate for me to tell you whether or not to cancel any plans that you may have on Sunday. That is ultimately up to your tolerance to icy roads, but make sure that you are exercising caution when driving. Also, be sure that you are working with fresh information. If you are looking at a forecast over 6 hours old, you are using bad information.