Posted by Donovan Neal on Friday, February 9, 2018
Chilly Start - Temperatures are in the upper 40s to low 50s across the board this morning, which is usually a good sign of a mild day ahead. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 60s today, with some places touching the 70s. Partly cloudy skies are likely.
The Weekend - For Saturday, we will likely reach our high temperature in the morning hours, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. From there, as the cold front approaches, temperatures will go the wrong way throughout the day, falling to the mid 30s by the late evening hours. Some drizzle or showers will be possible throughout the day, but there's no way to predict exact start/stop times. However, once we reach below freezing, we will start to see that rain transition to freezing rain Saturday evening.
Timing - I am basing this forecast off of the North American Model (NAM), which has been doing a great job of seeing shallow, cold air masses when other models do not. I do think showers will be possible at any time on Saturday, which is something we can't pinpoint a start/stop time, just plan ahead if you have any outdoor activities. Then, as the freezing line reaches our area (8 or 9pm), we will start to see some freezing rain develop to the west of DFW, before becoming widespread by midnight.We could still see some patchy showers throughout the morning hours on Sunday, with possibility for some freezing drizzle to work its way in.
Impact - No, I do not expect this to be a winter wonderland, but I do think some icy conditions on roadways will be possible starting Saturday evening. I don't think we will see rapid improvements on Sunday as temperatures will stay in the 30s for most of the day. I would not cancel my plans for the weekend, but do plan for it to rain off and on Saturday and freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Next Week - The early part of next week looks dry, though we could have some rain return to the state during the latter half of the week. We will need that as the drought gets progressively worse, but that's another topic for another day. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.