Posted by Donovan Neal on Saturday, May 26, 2018
Alberto continues to move northward through the gulf as a subtropical cyclone this morning with a disorganized structure and loss of thunderstorm activity overnight. Maximum sustained winds continues to remain at 40 mph.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:
- Another area of developing low pressure could strengthen and establish itself as the main area of circulation
- What we are waiting for is the energy from the severe thunderstorms from Texas make its way to the Gulf and begin the next stage of evolution in the broader Gulf region, this will determine overall how strong the system will become with time.
- That being said, Alberto should become more organized during today and tomorrow as the main circulation moves out of open water, and should officially become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours.
- Although it is mentioned that we should be hinting at higher intensities on this system, this is still expected to remain a tropical storm, not a hurricane.
Official landfall of this system is expected to take place Monday night/Tuesday at midnight. As with nearly all tropical cyclones, ridging will develop to the west of the of the main circulation. Meaning, the greatest threat for heavy rain and wind will be to the north and east of the main circulation, especially where tropical storm watches have already been issued along the coast.
Tropical Storm Watches extend from New Orleans to the coast of Carrabelle, Florida where the wind and heavy rain potential will be maximized the earliest. Not to mention, rip currents will also be an issue and red flags will fly through Memorial Day as this system approaches. Stay out of the waters in the Gulf.
Flash flood watches cover much of Southern Florida through the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. The flood threat will be maximized for areas closer to the coast where 6 to 12 inches of rainfall is expected. Areas more inland could still experience 3 to 6 inches.
For everyone, tropical cyclone or not, given the instability, moisture, and shearing inland, there will be a threat for isolated, brief tornadoes associated with this system Monday night through Tuesday.
The weather for the southeast US will improve on Wednesday. The Maritime tropical airmass will still be there, so the threat for random, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to exist.
As we get closer to the landfall of Alberto, just make sure that you are consistently working with fresh information. As I always say, if you are looking at a forecast that is more than six hours old, you are looking at bad information.